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The question now is: can we find a way to avoid C3PO's error without dismissing probability entirely as Han proposes?

To answer this we'll have to model how both C3PO thinks and what we believe about Han, then find a method to blend those models.

We'll use another beta distribution to express this for two reasons.

Clearly Han believes it's dangerous, ' They'd have to be crazy to follow us.' None of the pursuing tie fighters make it through, which provides pretty strong evidence that C3PO's numbers are not off. What's missing is that we know Han is a badass!

C3PO isn't wrong, he's just forgetting to add essential information to his calculation.

If we believe it was impossible for Han to die then the movie becomes boring.

At the other end, I personally feel much more strongly about Han being able to make it than C3PO does about him failing.

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